What to do with Josh Hamilton

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The biggest mystery of this early season is what to expect out of former #1 pick Josh Hamilton. He’s a tremendous physical talent, but after three years (‘03, ‘04, and ‘05) out of baseball and only 89 career ABs above A-ball, it would be ridiculous to expect him to be anything but a raw 4th outfielder type, unworthy of fantasy attention. Right?

.308/.419/.808 8R 4HR 8RBI 5BB 8K

Those are Hamilton’s numbers in 26 ABs this season. First of all, it’s 26 ABs. That’s more important than any of the stats above. That said, 4HR and 5BB in 26ABs shows fantastic power and patience for such an inexperienced player, and those are two categories that don’t “fluke” easily. This is also after a .403/.457/.556 spring where he had a 8:13 BB:K ratio and 7 XBHs in 72ABs. Hamilton is one of the more physically talented players in baseball, so what we’re waiting for is experience and polish before he can be an impact player. Is he somehow showing it already?

Ryan Freel, the Reds starting CF, recently said about Hamilton:

“I know you have to have a guy like that in the lineup. He’s one of the better athletes I’ve seen. Sky’s the limit for him. I will put myself aside any day, any time in order for us to win a championship. Regardless of where he’s been and what’s he done or only playing this much, he’s the type of guy that can step in and play every day. And he’s the type of guy that will put up good numbers if you stick with him. I don’t have any problem with that … especially now.”

So what we’ve got is a player with immense physical talent, great numbers through 100 ABs against (mostly) major league talent, and peers who respect him so much they are willing to give up playing time for him. What does this mean for your fantasy team?

A week ago, I would’ve told you to sell high on Josh Hamilton based on the hype. He’s a great baseball story, but I couldn’t dream he’d be able to hit well enough to make it in your lineup. Now–well–I can’t advocate GOING AFTER Hamilton, but I have to say that if you’re in a deep league and you have him, you have to hold onto him. You probably picked him up off of the wire, and there aren’t going to be many more players coming along for free who have his upside. At this point, if you can get a top prospect-esque haul for him, I’d do it. I’d put his value in the Carlos Gonzalez/Colby Rasmus territory.

That’s not to say Hamilton won’t come crashing back to earth, and become a footnote in the 2007 fantasy season. He’s a very risky player, but you gotta love the upside. Clearly the Reds do.

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