Sergio Says: “You’re Grounded!”

Jump to Comments

Of the sea of young pitchers likely floating around on your waiver wire this season, Sergio Mitre is one that should be garnering some attention for his performance lately. After his 7.2IP 8H 2ER 0HR 0BB 4K performance against the Pirates last night, Sergio’s ERA now stands at a paltry 2.18, his WHIP at 1.18.

Okay, so he’s not going to keep that up. What I’m here to talk about is Sergio’s emergence as a very strong groundball pitcher–possibly one of the best in the majors. After Mitre’s 16GB/3FB/4K night, his GB% is bursting at the seams–63.6%. The only pitchers that have topped 60 percent the last two years are Lowe (3.63ERA), Webb (3.10), Wang (3.63), and Westbrook (4.17) in ‘06, and Webb (3.54), Lowe (3.61), Westbrook (4.49), and Mulder (3.64) in ‘05. That’s good company, and if Mitre can keep his BB/9 down around 3.00 he’ll be mentioned in the same breath as these guys (well, maybe except Webb) a lot more often.

Mitre put up a 59.4% and 66.3% his first two years in the league before dropping to 51.9% last year, so he’s certainly got it in him to keep this up. The biggest change in his approach this year is improved control–his 2.18BB/9 is his lowest since A-ball, but getting shoved into the majors at 22 is a big part of that. Guys with great sinkers, like Mitre, Webb, Westbrook, and Lowe, tend to run very low walk totals–they want the hitter to put the ball in play. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Sergio turn into a pitcher who walks two-and-a-half guys a game.

Guys who run 58%+ GB%’s and 6.0+K/9’s are few and far between–but those who do are usually very effective. We’re talking a young Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe in a good year, or Mark Mulder when he didn’t suck. Mitre will be a little less effective unless he proves he can harness his control, but he clearly has more upside than you’d think just by a quick glance at his numbers. He also pitches for a good, young offensive team, which can only help his value. He’s someone I’d definitely take a flyer on in a 16-team or NL-only league.

1 Comment

Filed under General Fantasy