Clippard Minces Mets, Suggesting Sleeper Status?

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Yankees pitcher Tyler Clippard made his big-league debut on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball last night against the team with the second-best record in baseball, the New York Mets.  He pitched quite well, dropping a 6IP 3H 1ER 1HR 3BB 6K line on the NL’s best offense, and landing his first W in the process.

Clippard’s minor league success makes him something of a polarizing figure in prospect circles, as his fantastic minor league numbers are undermined by his underwhelming stuff.  As a Yankees prospect, he has a hard time flying under the radar, and is undoubtably being followed by many owners in your keeper and dynasty leagues.  

While Clippard is supposedly only up for a start or two, another good showing could make it hard for the Yankees to send him back down.  Either way, it appears he doesn’t have much left to learn in the minors.  Is Clippard the kind of pitcher that can succeed long-term in the big leagues?

I have to admit, I’m a numbers guy.  A pitcher can’t get by just on stuff and projectability, and I tend to stay away from those types when I’m drafting minor leaguers (sometimes to my detriment).  Still, you have to look at the way a guy gets batters out, and I just don’t think Clippard does it in a way that will transfer well to the majors.

Looking over Clippard’s minor league numbers, the first thing that pops out to me is that he was extremely lucky with hits in ‘06.  He had a good strikeout rate, but nothing that would support a 6.4H/9.  If he was allowing the hit an inning that he’s allowed so far in ‘07, he would’ve had an ERA in the 4’s, and a lot fewer fans.   That he’s only allowed 2HR in 39.2 minor league innings this year helps his ERA out again, but that’s nothing you can expect a guy who typically puts up a 40% GB-rate to keep up.  

Tyler reminds me a lot of Jeff Suppan, a skinny right-hander with mediocre stuff who put up very good K/9 and K/BB numbers in the minors at a young age, but never carried that success to the majors.  Suppan has been a solid innings-eater for a lot of teams, but never put up numbers a fantasy owner can appreciate.  I see a similar future for Clippard, albeit one with a few more wins thanks to the Yanks’ consistently solid offense.

If Clippard can maintain a 7K/9 in the majors, I can see him being a good fantasy option.  While he’s got a good curve and spots his pitches well, he just doesn’t have the Maddux-esque movement on his fastball to make that happen.  Tell him to develop a sinker and then get back to me.  Until then, let someone else pay Yankee-prospect value for Tyler Clippard while you wait a few months for the better version to reach Minnesota.

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