One of my favorite offseason sleepers this year was Kevin Kouzmanoff. Kouz was the prototypical late-bloomer prospect, spending four years in college before getting drafted, only to spend another year-and-a-half getting through A-ball. After finally reaching AA in 2006, the power-hitting third baseman rocketed to the majors–logging only 346AB in the high minors, and ending the year with a .214/.271/.411 stint for the Indians in 56AB.
Since prospect hounds never really take to 25-year-olds who haven’t sniffed AA, Kouz didn’t get much attention before the 2006 season. That made him a virtual unknown for many fantasy players before his 2006 call-up, even with a .332/.395/.556 career minor league line. Everything changed when the Padres dealt Josh Barfield for Kouzmanoff, virtually handing him their starting 3B job for 2007.
Kevin was suddenly a popular sleeper pick for deep leagues coming into this season, as a lock for a full-time job combined with his minor league numbers had many (including myself) projecting a .280AVG and 25HR. However, his stock plummeted as he hit a dreadful .113/.171/.183 in April, and hit rock-bottom as he was hitting .121/.178/.209 as recently as May 13th. Then something clicked.
Since May 14th, Kevin Kouzmanoff has hit .521 with 4DB, 2HR, 9RBI, and a 4:5 BB:K ratio in 23AB, bringing his line up to .202/.269/.360 for the year. After being left for dead in fantasy leagues of virtually all formats, he’s been one of baseball’s hottest hitters in May, even after an ugly first two weeks.
Are we seeing the real Kouz come to life? I think so. It’s not out of the ordinary to see a hitter struggle in his first 150AB the way Kevin has, even at 25. Travis Hafner, a guy I like to use as a comp for Kouz, hit .242/.329/.387 in 62AB at 25 and then put up a .791OPS in 100 AAA at-bats to start the next year.
PECOTA projected a .290/.348/.499 line for Kouz this season, and I think it’s very possible he’ll achieve those rates over the rest of the season. That doesn’t make him stand out at a crazy-deep 3B position, but it’s not often you have a chance at that kind of production for as cheap as you can likely land him right now. You have another chance to get in on the ground floor.
If Kevin Kouzmanoff is on the wire in your league, pick him up while there’s still a chance. I’d watch his BB:K rate to make sure he’s keeping it around 1:2. If he does, I think he’s going to be a guy who can consistently puts up numbers similar to what Joe Crede did last year: .290AVG, 80R, 25-30HR, and 90-100RBI. PECOTA even gives a 10-20% chance he’ll go all Travis Hafner on the league. Does that sound like something you would be interested in?
3 Comments
May 25, 2007 at 12:04 am
I am dying at 3b! I drafted Encarnacion low compared to many drafts I saw and I thought I was getting an obscene amount of value, only to have him get demoted to AAA. Now I have been watching for anyone flying under the radar at the position that I might be able to grab and atone for my struggles at 3b. Now both Kouz and Edwin are available and I don’t know who to grab!! If I could get anything close to the numbers you mentioned in this article, I would be ecstatic. Who do you guys like better going forward?
May 25, 2007 at 12:45 pm
3B “crazy deep”? no way!
3B has been a fantasy tease all year! Slumps from Wright, Beltre, Rolen, Atkins, Zimmerman, Crede and Inge have made 3B quite disappointing. Add in Kouz, Gordon, and Encarnacion’s horrid starts and the picture looks even worse.
So far this has been a good year to own a surging 3B (A-Rod, Upton, Chipper) because of the lack of production. There is no questioning the talent level at the position, but what good is talent when it doesnt translate into production?
If Kouz breaks out of his slump he’ll rapidly become a popular pick for all those owners mired with one of many slumping 3B
May 25, 2007 at 7:24 pm
If Edwin gets traded, I think he has more value going forward. At this point though, I think it’s a toss-up between him and Kouz. Edwin might get you more RBI, but Kouz will probably hit for more average
It’s true there’s a lot of slumping third basemen, but that’s just a testament to how deep the position is talent-wise. Even a schmuck like Aubrey Huff can get you .275 20HR 85RBI there. A lot of the guys Lance mentioned (Atkins, Zimmerman, Gordon, Crede) are pretty good buy-low options right now (Wright is doing just fine). If the talent is there, the numbers will be at the end of the year.