Warning Track Power is moving to a new home at wtpblog.com. I’ve got a new post up there today titled “The All-Unlucky Team”, where I pick an all-star team of unlucky players based on things like BABIP, HR/F, Contact Rate, and LD%. Go check it out, and don’t forget to change your bookmarks. I’ll be posting there from now on, and you’ll see some more (hopefully) great content coming down the pipe soon.

I’m still working on a new project that should be unveiled pretty soon.  I have an idea for a write-up that I know you’ll all love, and I wanted to post it today–but I gotta wait until this project is finished.  Hold tight, we still have a long season ahead of us.

Meanwhile, take a look at J.P. Howell.  He’s probably going to be called up to take Casey Fossum’s spot in the Tampa Bay rotation, and he’s a good young pitcher with solid stuff and great command.  If you like the high-GB/high-K pitchers like I do, you’ll be happy to know J.P.’s running a 49% ground-ball percentage in AAA, which is pretty tough to do when you’re averaging over a K an inning.  He could start for the Rays as early as Sunday.

Anyway, back to work…

You can’t stop him, you can only hope to hit him with an errant throw.

4IP 3H 0ER 1BB 7K and 5GB:0FB before getting plunked by a Ted Lilly throw on his way to first base.  He was taken out of the game, but it shouldn’t be serious.

Good Lawd Sergio!  What do you eat for breakfast?

I’m back from the vacation and ready for action, starting tonight with a question I recently received from a reader.
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Nathan asks…
I know you like Mitre, but how would you rank the following pitchers available in my 10-team 5×5 Yahoo league –

Sergio Mitre
Sean Marshall
Orlando Hernandez
Greg Maddux
Chuck James
Fausto Carmona

I don’t usually deal with questions in a league so shallow on this site, but I think those guys are a mediocre enough group that you’re going to find many of them in deeper leagues–or at least be able to acquire them without giving up much. Let’s take a look at the group in order of their value this year:

Greg Maddux - Because he’s a sure thing. He offers little in the way of upside, but I’m nearly positive he’ll be giving you an above-average ERA, 12-15 wins, and a sub-1.30 WHIP. And in high school I was a smallish righty with an a mediocre running fastball and good off-speed stuff. Sue me.

Sergio Mitre - I’ve analyzed him enough in this space, so I’ll add just this: Ask Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Carl Pavano, and Brad Penny how groundball pitchers like playing for the Marlins.

Chuck James - I like his strikeout rate, but I’m scared off by the ugly whip and extreme flyball rate. With how many homeruns he’ll give up, his ERA shouldn’t help you unless he’s running 1.20 WHIPs. Still, he’d probably be the consensus pick of the group, and the top three are fairly interchangeable for me.  I just think James has the biggest potential to hurt you in a league that shallow.

Orlando Hernandez - A pretty good pitcher when he’s healthy–he just isn’t healthy that often. A good waiver-wire pickup, as he’ll most likely help you when he’s on the mound, and it won’t hurt as much when he’s injured if he was free. Always good for some strikeouts and decent rate stats.

Fausto Carmona - Doing his best Chien-Ming Wang impression. Fausto’s allowed 60 hits in 63 innings while only striking out 23 batters. I shouldn’t have to tell you that’s not sustainable. Sell, sell, sell.

Sean Marshall - A decent guy to take a flyer on in the deepest of leagues, but he’ll have to keep his strikeout rate above 7.0 to be successful. He doesn’t get enough ground balls and walks too many to become an above-average pitcher otherwise. If he keeps striking people out at the major league level, he could be valuable. I’m just not confident he can.

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I’m working on a couple big things that should appear over the next day or two, so stay tuned. Here’s hoping the first two months of the season have left you near the top of your leagues.

WTP sleeper fave Sergio Mitre was in control facing the Mets tonight, putting up a 7.2IP 8H 0ER 1BB 8K line, and getting 12 groundball outs to 1 flyout (two outs came off of outfield assists).  He now has a 56% GB-rate (it actually dropped thanks to all the K’s) and 6.4K/9, putting him among Gil Meche and Brandon Webb as the only pitchers with rates that high in both categories.

The real development in Mitre’s game, and the reason he’s running a 1.89ERA, is that he’s only walked 1.6 batters per nine so far this season.  It’s been 55 innings now, so the small sample-size argument is getting weaker–especially since these peripherals vary a lot less than something like ERA or batting average.  We’ve got to start looking at this as a new skill pretty soon, and it’s one that makes him a pretty dang good pitcher. 

Mitre shouldn’t be availabe in anything but a 12-team mixed league, and his gaudy ERA probably guarantees he isn’t.  If you didn’t grab him when I suggested it earlier, you probably won’t have the chance.  I think he’s for real though, and we might see a solid 2005 Brandon Webb/Derek Lowe type of season out of him this year.

As I’m sure you’ve seen in five or six different places before you came here, Ryan Braun was called up today.  I just wanted to take a moment to point back to my April 15th write-up about Braun’s imminent promotion. An injury knocked my early-May prediction back a bit, so I’ll still count it as a win for me.

I expect Braun to be the impact 3B many of us thought Alex Gordon would be this year. He could easily be a top-10 guy at the position the rest of the way.  I’ll say .285 with 15HR, 8SB, and a potentially high number of RBI if he gets a chance to hit near the middle of the order.

With him and Gallardo hitting Yahoo leagues in the next few days, I hope you keeper leaguers saved your waivers.  There’s a lot of fun on the waiver wire this week.

Hong-Chih Kuo struck out four in four scoreless innings last night, and is expected to start for the Dodgers on June 2nd.  He now has 23K in 15.1 AAA innings. 

Did you listen to me the other day? It’s on Rotoworld now, so you better hurry.

One of my favorite offseason sleepers this year was Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Kouz was the prototypical late-bloomer prospect, spending four years in college before getting drafted, only to spend another year-and-a-half getting through A-ball.  After finally reaching AA in 2006, the power-hitting third baseman rocketed to the majors–logging only 346AB in the high minors, and ending the year with a .214/.271/.411 stint for the Indians in 56AB. 

Since prospect hounds never really take to 25-year-olds who haven’t sniffed AA, Kouz didn’t get much attention before the 2006 season.  That made him a virtual unknown for many fantasy players before his 2006 call-up, even with a .332/.395/.556 career minor league line.  Everything changed when the Padres dealt Josh Barfield for Kouzmanoff, virtually handing him their starting 3B job for 2007. 

Kevin was suddenly a popular sleeper pick for deep leagues coming into this season, as a lock for a full-time job combined with his minor league numbers had many (including myself) projecting a .280AVG and 25HR.  However, his stock plummeted as he hit a dreadful .113/.171/.183 in April, and hit rock-bottom as he was hitting .121/.178/.209 as recently as May 13th.  Then something clicked.

Since May 14th, Kevin Kouzmanoff has hit .521 with 4DB, 2HR, 9RBI, and a 4:5 BB:K ratio in 23AB, bringing his line up to .202/.269/.360 for the year.  After being left for dead in fantasy leagues of virtually all formats, he’s been one of baseball’s hottest hitters in May, even after an ugly first two weeks. 

Are we seeing the real Kouz come to life?  I think so.  It’s not out of the ordinary to see a hitter struggle in his first 150AB the way Kevin has, even at 25.  Travis Hafner, a guy I like to use as a comp for Kouz, hit .242/.329/.387 in 62AB at 25 and then put up a .791OPS in 100 AAA at-bats to start the next year. 

PECOTA projected a .290/.348/.499 line for Kouz this season, and I think it’s very possible he’ll achieve those rates over the rest of the season.  That doesn’t make him stand out at a crazy-deep 3B position, but it’s not often you have a chance at that kind of production for as cheap as you can likely land him right now.  You have another chance to get in on the ground floor.

If Kevin Kouzmanoff is on the wire in your league, pick him up while there’s still a chance.  I’d watch his BB:K rate to make sure he’s keeping it around 1:2.  If he does, I think he’s going to be a guy who can consistently puts up numbers similar to what Joe Crede did last year:  .290AVG,  80R, 25-30HR, and 90-100RBI.  PECOTA even gives a 10-20% chance he’ll go all Travis Hafner on the league.  Does that sound like something you would be interested in?

Two players I mentioned in my on the mend write-up a month ago are finally back getting regular playing time.  If you read that article at the time, you might’ve picked up Dan Johnson for next to nothing and been pretty happy with his production so far. Well, Hong-Chih Kuo finally returned to the Dodgers a week ago, and Kaz Matsui made an appearance at second base for the Rockies last night for the first time in five weeks.   Both could easily match Johnson’s value over the rest of the season.

Kuo is a 25-year-old Taiwanese pitcher whose massive strikeout potential is overshadowed only by his health issues.  This is the kind of guy who can fly under the radar because he hasn’t logged a lot of innings lately, but he’ll turn some heads when he shows the killer stuff that has him running a 11.2K/9 in the majors and 12.3K/9 in the minors for his career.   The Dodgers planned on giving him a the rotation spot over Billingsley this year, and could follow through on that plan after a solid week or two in relief. 

Most of you remember the fanfare when Kaz Matsui came over from Japan to the Mets.  The Japanese version of Derek Jeter never caught his stride in the majors, putting up several disappointing seasons in NY before getting traded to the Rockies last year.  Since landing in Colorado, Kaz has hit .353 with 13SB in 42 games.  Batting second last night, he hit two doubles and drove in three runs.  Matsui is only 31 and was a superstar on par with Hideki Matsui in Japan, so it’s possible he can still put up a productive year or two in the states.   He could hit .280-.300 with 20SB and a boatload of runs batting second for the Rockies, and that’s better than what half of the teams in your league are running out at 2B right now.

I’d take a flyer on these guys in any league 14-teams or deeper.  They’re the kind of low-cost, high-return players that can make your solid team into a dominant one if things bounce your way.  Don’t wait until it’s too late.

Yankees pitcher Tyler Clippard made his big-league debut on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball last night against the team with the second-best record in baseball, the New York Mets.  He pitched quite well, dropping a 6IP 3H 1ER 1HR 3BB 6K line on the NL’s best offense, and landing his first W in the process.

Clippard’s minor league success makes him something of a polarizing figure in prospect circles, as his fantastic minor league numbers are undermined by his underwhelming stuff.  As a Yankees prospect, he has a hard time flying under the radar, and is undoubtably being followed by many owners in your keeper and dynasty leagues.  

While Clippard is supposedly only up for a start or two, another good showing could make it hard for the Yankees to send him back down.  Either way, it appears he doesn’t have much left to learn in the minors.  Is Clippard the kind of pitcher that can succeed long-term in the big leagues?

I have to admit, I’m a numbers guy.  A pitcher can’t get by just on stuff and projectability, and I tend to stay away from those types when I’m drafting minor leaguers (sometimes to my detriment).  Still, you have to look at the way a guy gets batters out, and I just don’t think Clippard does it in a way that will transfer well to the majors.

Looking over Clippard’s minor league numbers, the first thing that pops out to me is that he was extremely lucky with hits in ‘06.  He had a good strikeout rate, but nothing that would support a 6.4H/9.  If he was allowing the hit an inning that he’s allowed so far in ‘07, he would’ve had an ERA in the 4’s, and a lot fewer fans.   That he’s only allowed 2HR in 39.2 minor league innings this year helps his ERA out again, but that’s nothing you can expect a guy who typically puts up a 40% GB-rate to keep up.  

Tyler reminds me a lot of Jeff Suppan, a skinny right-hander with mediocre stuff who put up very good K/9 and K/BB numbers in the minors at a young age, but never carried that success to the majors.  Suppan has been a solid innings-eater for a lot of teams, but never put up numbers a fantasy owner can appreciate.  I see a similar future for Clippard, albeit one with a few more wins thanks to the Yanks’ consistently solid offense.

If Clippard can maintain a 7K/9 in the majors, I can see him being a good fantasy option.  While he’s got a good curve and spots his pitches well, he just doesn’t have the Maddux-esque movement on his fastball to make that happen.  Tell him to develop a sinker and then get back to me.  Until then, let someone else pay Yankee-prospect value for Tyler Clippard while you wait a few months for the better version to reach Minnesota.