HR/F Fun: Five Lucky and Five Unlucky Pitchers

Like I did a few weeks back, I wanted to look at how HR/F rate has affected certain pitchers this season. Similar to BABIP, HR/F is something pitchers have virtually no control over–a hurler’s HR/F should move toward 10-11% as the season goes on. Using that information, it’s pretty easy to understand how we can pick out pitchers who have been unlucky or lucky with homeruns in this young season by looking at where their HR/F percentage is.

Sometimes a player’s HR/F can be unlucky the whole season, like Felix Hernandez’ 18.4% or Josh Beckett’s 17.4% in ‘06. If you viewed that as bad luck and bought low on either of these pitchers coming into this season, you’d have to be happy with the way they’ve rebounded so far.

Just like last time, I’m going to pick five guys that you can expect to improve as their luck gets better, and five who should regress as their luck begins to run out. The first group is a good lot to buy low on, while the the second are sure to have more rocky times ahead. To the lists we go:

Throwing Bullets

• After going 3-for-3 with a walk and 2RBI last night, Kevin Kouzmanoff is now hitting .296/.343/.444 in May. It’s a small sample, but it’s encouraging that he’s got a 4:4 BB:K ratio over that time, compared to 4:22 in April.  His overall numbers are still a big frustration to any owner who is hanging onto him in a deep league, so you may be able to get him very cheaply if you want to gamble. 

Heads Up

Blogging’s going to be a little on the light side for me the next ten days or so, as I’m taking a little vacation at the moment.  I’ll still try to get some content out for you guys whenever I get the chance, but I just didn’t want you all to wonder where I’ve gone.  Keep checking back in, I’ll make sure you’re not too disappointed.

Sergio Says: “You’re Grounded!”

Of the sea of young pitchers likely floating around on your waiver wire this season, Sergio Mitre is one that should be garnering some attention for his performance lately. After his 7.2IP 8H 2ER 0HR 0BB 4K performance against the Pirates last night, Sergio’s ERA now stands at a paltry 2.18, his WHIP at 1.18.

Okay, so he’s not going to keep that up. What I’m here to talk about is Sergio’s emergence as a very strong groundball pitcher–possibly one of the best in the majors. After Mitre’s 16GB/3FB/4K night, his GB% is bursting at the seams–63.6%. The only pitchers that have topped 60 percent the last two years are Lowe (3.63ERA), Webb (3.10), Wang (3.63), and Westbrook (4.17) in ‘06, and Webb (3.54), Lowe (3.61), Westbrook (4.49), and Mulder (3.64) in ‘05. That’s good company, and if Mitre can keep his BB/9 down around 3.00 he’ll be mentioned in the same breath as these guys (well, maybe except Webb) a lot more often.

Whatchoo Talkin’ Bout? Willits.

If you’re in a deep fantasy league, you’ve probably noticed what Reggie Willits has done this year. With Garret Anderson going down in late April, Willits has shined as his replacement–in 78ABs with the Angels, Reggie has gone .359/.432/.397 with 12R and 7SB.

While Willits is assured of a starting role on the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars, it’s a little hazy whether or not he’ll have a spot in the Angels’ lineup when GA returns. It’s hard to believe that a guy playing so well is going to lose his job to an aging has-been whose last good season was five years ago, but Anderson’s status as “Mr. Angel” has to give him quite a bit of pull with the Angels brass.

So what are the chances Reggie will continue to get regular playing time after GA returns a few weeks from now? That question will mean the difference between Willits having value in standard mixed leagues, or being waiver wire fodder in the deepest of leagues.

Keep An Eye On: Buchholz and Bowden

In 2006, the Red Sox had two of the better pitching prospects in baseball coming up through their system in John Papelbon and Jon Lester. Lester was actually the more highly regarded of the two, but he (for understandable reasons) has yet to fulfill his potential in the majors, while Paps has been converted to one of the most dominant closers in baseball.

A year later, there are two new Sox starters rocketing through the minor league system and making hitters look foollish. Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden have been two of the most impressive pitching prospects in this young season, and as of today, they’re both Portland Seadogs. Buchholz started his season at AA Portland, Bowden at A+ Lancaster, but with the latter being promoted after last night’s game, they’ll immediately become one of the best 1-2 punches in minor league baseball.

Sunday Required Reading

I ran across a couple of articles around the ‘net this week that I know WTP readers will enjoy.

• Rich Lederer had some insight into B.J. Upton’s hot start on his Baseball Analysts site. Check it out, and try to decide if it’s a good time to sell high on B.J.

• The Hardball Times’ Matthew Carruth did some great analysis on GB% and its effect on HR/F, something that anybody following this blog for a while can appreciate. It turns out that groundball pitchers may actually post slightly better HR/F rates, which goes against past conventional thinking. Take a look.

Also, pay attention to Anthony Lerew’s start against Pittsburgh today. It wasn’t long ago that Lerew was pretty well regarded as a prospect, and he could be a surprise pitcher for practically no investment in fantasy leagues. Wandy Rodriguez is going today too, and he’s someone I’m beginning to get behind.

High-GB%/High-K Pitchers

Back on April 23rd, I talked about the kind of pitcher I think has the best chance for success: A groundball pitcher who also strikes people out. I established in that post that across the board, pitchers who post at least a 45% ground ball rate and 6.5K/9 tend to put up very good ERAs. This is a great tool for picking out unlucky pitchers, and identifying sleeper picks.

Looking back at that post, I see that if you followed my recommendations, you’d be enjoying very good (and surprising) performances from guys like Gil Meche, Chad Gaudin, and Wandy Rodriguez these last few weeks. I also told you to watch Kip Wells to see if his strikeout rate would stick around (it didn’t), and recommended Edgar Gonzalez, who lost his starting job despite pitching pretty well. It was early though, so an aberration or two is to be expected.

Now that we’re a little further into the season, I’d like to take another look to see what starters are achieving our magic ratios. Here are the pitchers with at least a 45% ground ball rate and 6.5K/9 this season:

Buy, Buy, Buy; Buy Like There’s No Tomorrow: Chris B. Young

When the season began, there were two pretty clearcut favorites for the ROY races in my mind: Alex Gordon and Chris B. (the “B.” stands for buy) Young. We’re almost six weeks into the season now, and both players have been a disappointment. Gordon’s sporting a paltry .175 batting average, while Young’s .233 is only encouraging by comparison. Both of these players were likely nigh-untouchable in your deep keeper leagues this offseason, but that attitude may be softening with each passing week, to the point where either of the players could be had for a semi-reasonable offer. While I’m still a little wary about Gordon this season, I’m going to tell you today why you should step over your own mother (hey ma!) to acquire Chris Young.

As a toolsy, strikeout prone, power/speed (black) guy who plays great CF defense, Chris Young enjoys endless comparisons to Mike Cameron. While that’s often seen as a negative (for reasons I don’t understand) I think it was an apt comparison a year or two ago. What most people are slow to notice is that Young isn’t the player he was in ‘05, when he really started catching our attention. The Cameron comparison was based significantly on Young’s high strikeout rate–a trait it seems he no longer possesses.

I’m back; apologies

After a ten-day hiatus from the blog without any explanation, I’d like to say I’m sorry. I had some work-related things come up and found myself without much time lately, and what spare time I did have I spent with the fiancee instead of writing. I didn’t realize so many of you guys enjoyed coming here on a daily basis, and I want to thank you for the interest and concern. It was lame of me to disappear without at least an explanation.

So I’ve got a post in mind for today, and I’ll do my best to get rolling on a regular basis again. It’s tough to put something new out every day, but at the same time I know I love sites that produce fresh content day after day. I think it’d be ideal if I had somebody else here to help, or if I went somewhere else to share duties, but for now I’ll try to give what I can when I can. Stay tuned.